BDotYeve Preview

*Please note all Saturday fixtures at Wilberforce road have been cancelled*

On the use of the term BDotY by OPHC: It’s terribly sad that for that average institution that their most fun day of the year requires our involvement… And it’s staggering that since Oxf*rd chat is worse than Cambridge chat, the average chat on the day must ipso facto be lower than any given pure CUHC social. I am reminded though of the closing remarks from Dumas’ classic the Count of Monte Cristo: “There is neither happiness nor unhappiness in this world; there is only the comparison of one state with another. Only a man who has felt ultimate despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss. ” So maybe BDotY is so great only because it makes the Cambridge chat seem out of this world.

Following on such profound words, this week I consider the words of Plato: “The measure of a man is what he does with power”. Bear this in mind, for I, the master of the webs, bear great power. To paraphrase Aristotle, while Plato is dear to me, but dearer still is truth. And it is on the eve of such a momentous event that I find myself delving into the truth.

It’s almost here. It’s the day you’ve all been waiting for. There’s no doubt it’s going to be amazing. That’s right, it’s the day that the analysis of the profile picture likes is released.

We’re liked and sometimes loved, but we’re not very funny

Everyone will have seen by now the hype generated by the biggest annual coordinated media campaign in the University*. Now it’s time to gain insight into why this campaign is so effective.

*in which individual pictures photos are uploaded to Facebook.

The Teams

TeamArithmetic Mean ReactsGeometric Mean ReactsArithmetic Mean % Friends reacted
Nomads220±1621323.35%
Squanderers170±1216320+1.90%
Bedouin165±2017116.80%
Wanderers143±1917220.50%
Blunderers0±000%

Following the great Filtergate scandal of 2018, the nomads this year have gone for a more natural look. Now that they have eventually wiped off their dip-coat from Rimmel London, they’ve let the Wilby sunset do wonders, radiating a natural glowing hue. Such a natural optimisation merits natural statistics. Here I turn to the obvious candidate: the exponential function.

The near exponential relationship between % friends react and time of photo clearly shows that those first in the queue were at a serious advantage by going first with the Wilby sunset.

The Wanderer’s choice of background fully reaffirms that they are old and boring. And it is with this ageing squad that their reactions have suffered. But four is one and five is two. Hence, the 1derers once again occupy the top spot, with the Women’s Blues hit list in second. 

The Squanderers have also stuck to standing in front of the dark lime blue boards. This has not repaid them as well as they may have once hoped.

The true measure of a captain is the performance of their team. Just saying…

A Year on year improvement was only achieved by the Nomads. Meanwhile, the Squanderers continue their sloping sinusoidal form:

Reacts= 38.16*sin(6.557(Year-2016)+12.94*Year+89.48

Meanwhile, the Bedouin are still very fresh… It appears their panic to get their profile pics sorted on time has had a grave effect, falling below the squanderers. At least the panicking is now all out of the way.

TeamLikeLoveHahaWowSadAngryTotal
Nomads144701311220
Squanderers123381511170
Bedouin103552.1301165
Wanderers96422.4301143

The total average breakdown shows that the Wandies are the funniest, but everyone loves the nomads. I’m not sure what it is, but the Squandies apparently have a wow factor of 1.5 over the average CUHC population.

The Individuals

There are no I’s in team but there are five in individual brilliance. We, therefore, move swiftly from team performance to those individuals that have really shined in PPRC 2020.

First, we look at those who on the face of it have done the very best:

RankNamePPTRC 2020
1Izzy Austin403
2Sarah Alsaad306
3Isolde Pryle294
4George Milner277
5Ollie Rose265
6Rosie Stevenson262
7Charlotte Cutter253
8Kirsten Meehan252
9Thomas Whitworth251
10Annabel Follows248

Yeah, alright, you may be quite popular. Good for you. But let’s be honest, everything is relative. Time, space, enthalpy, the value of British sterling, your grades when normalised to a Gaussian curve…. I could go on.

Hence, we move on to who has the highest quality friends:

RankName% Friends reacted
1Rob Gorgy55.88%
2Lydia Michaelides44.34%
3Owain Houghton33.71%
4Toby Fairhurst32.12%
5Izzy Austin29.68%
6Georgie Cooper28.98%
7Thomas Whitworth28.08%
8Emma Hatherell27.80%
9Kirsty Hume27.59%
10Harry Cox27.08%

But even if they’re loyal, it doesn’t mean your friends love you:

RankName% Loved
1Lydia Michaelides23.90%
2Rob Gorgy18.24%
3Toby Fairhurst12.01%
4Kirsty Hume10.96%
5Owain Houghton10.80%
6Annabel Follows9.11%
7Izzy Austin8.91%
8Jack England8.86%
9Ethan Francis8.78%
10Georgie Cooper8.66%

I’m also keen to use this to emphasise a level of internet safety to you, Gen Z.  Recently, I keep getting random FB requests from people with 45 mutual (CUHC) friends. I ask all of you who this person is, and you all say “I don’t know but I added them cos I’ve got 20 mutual friends”. Stranger danger kids.

Alongside a dramatic deterioration in conventional social conversational skills, an inability to talk to people of the opposite gender and most importantly, the quality of your lid, being in CUHC can also somehow make some of you more popular:

Deterioration in Lid Quality – Exhibit A
RankName% improvement
1Toby Fairhurst1542.86%
2Ellie Fenton417.86%
3Emma Hatherell380.65%
4Emily Smith229.03%
5Jess Harding172.13%
6Laura Clesham166.67%
7Mark Roberts110.14%
8Julian Wreford107.89%
9Charlotte Cutter105.69%
10Joe Chandler84.07%

Furthermore, none of the above’s previous PP contained any CUHC stash, further supporting our findings. More generally, the average improvement in react count from each individual’s previous PP was 54±2%.

Top Captions

A picture may be worth a thousand words, but is rarely able to fling quality chat:

The Analysis

At CUHC media, we firmly believe in a level playing field. An uneven one simply leads to the ball finding the local minima. In recent years, it has become apparent that many people try to enhance their performance simply by commenting (or worse, even sharing). To mitigate against this, we ran an artificial neural network, using PPRC 2019 as training data. We were, therefore, able to estimate how many likes you would have got without commenting. The big losers here were the Beds, with Charlotte Cutter (-11 places), Scarlett Atkinson (-13 places) and captain Emily Bailey (-5 places) dropping down the rankings.

RankNameCorrected PPRC
1Izzy Austin380
2Sarah Alsaad300
3Isolde Pryle292
4George Milner272
5Ollie Rose262
6Thomas Whitworth245
7Kirsten Meehan244
8Annabel Follows244
9Rosie Stevenson233
10Tilly Loughton233

A lot of effort but it didn’t really work to knock the popular people off the top spot. (Sharing was undemocratically decided to be worth 50 comments)

In addition to newsfeed bumping tactics, we’re also very aware that in wider society, your family name can often lead to elevated social status. We think this is wrong. We have therefore countered this metric:

NameScrabble Normalised PPRC
Ollie Rose29.4
Sarah Alsaad20.4
George Milner17.3
Isolde Pryle17.3
Louis Totton16.7
Rosie Stevenson15.4
Oli Rowlands15.1
Fraser Allen14.1
Connie Day13.4
Izzy Austin13.0

Total reacts normalised by your preferred name’s scrabble score

Our analysis shows that you’re more likely to have a date tonight if you have a high-value name:

Spearman’s Rank = 0.4 means a weak positive correlation

At CUHC, we’re also keen to know how you mature with age. For some, this is more tricky than for others, but it turns out that PPRC data is yet again a reliable metric:

Why people usually graduate after three years

For deeper analysis, we turn to our favourite Wanderering Snake of PPRC-past. 

The real reason that it’s his Swand song

We then turned to several other reliable metrics of the past, which have alarming success:

  • For the gents:
Obvious ‘toxic’ comment not included here
  • I’d like to think I have at least some gentlemanly qualities. Therefore for ladies, we considered Shirt Number:
This is why the Blues want the low numbers…
  • Once again, the north beats the south, and Oxf*rd is the worst of all.
Since Oxf*rd have decided they want to be involved in BDotY festivities, we’ve included them in the statistics. Unsurprisingly, they’ve performed poorly.
  • Lastly, we consider how hockey performance relates to PPRC. Sadly there was no clear correlation, and I couldn’t really twist it to get the conclusion that I wanted.

With all these metrics, quite rightly all of equal importance, we decided to crown a champion of champions:

RankNameAverage rank
1Izzy Austin12.5
2Georgie Cooper14.5
3Kirsten Meehan15.8
4Annabel Follows16.0
5Owain Houghton16.8
6Ollie Rose17.0
7Isolde Pryle17.2
8Kirsty Hume17.7
9Tilly Loughton18.0
10Frankie Harley18.0

In conclusion, despite our best efforts to counter her performance, Izzy Austin is average whilst everyone else is below average.

Those to let the side down

Sadly, not everyone got involved. This makes me sad. I won’t name them because that wouldn’t be fair, but I think everyone has a right to see their profile pictures…

But wait there’s far more to find… If we don’t like each other, how can we expect others to like us? On this accord, we searched through to find out who had been letting the side down:

NamePP’s liked
William James3.00
Scarlett Atkinson3.00
Rachel Caul6.00
Emily Smith9.00
Laura Clesham10.00
Robert Gorgy10.00
Rosie Stevenson18.00
Emma Hatherell19.00
Lara Gueorguieva20.00
Ben Rushmore20.00

More shockingly, not even the whole of one team liked one of their own team member’s profile pictures! In fact, the Men’s blues were the best:

TeamMean Reacts# Full Houses
Men’s Blues10.3±0.64
Wanderers9.5±0.50
Nomads9.3±0.40
Women’s Blues8.9±0.62
Squanderers7.7±0.50
Bedouin5.9±0.40

Lastly, there’s always a few that go fishing for likes during the PPRC campaign. We thought this year we’d simply call you out:

TeamAverage new friends caughtWorst OffenderTheir Haul
Nomads5.7±1.5Emma Hatherell+22
Wanderers4.8±1.0Marus Jones+14
Squanderers7.6±1.7Will James+23
Bedouin7.6±1.7Charlotte Cutter+20+1

But enough of that. At CUHC, we believe in positive thoughts. Hence I’d like to congratulate those who’ve been ploughing through the book de face in order show their CUHC love/like/haha/wow/angry/sad:

NameNumber Likes vs. Being LikedPercentage they liked
Owain Houghton-17.00100.00%
Sarah Alsaad-17.0096.55%
Charlotte Cutter-22.0094.83%
Lewis Collins-23.0093.10%
Jason Allen-24.0093.10%
Izzy Austin-22.0091.38%
Emily Bailey-20.0087.93%
Isolde Pryle-14.0087.93%
Sam Pritchard-18.0087.93%
Kirsty Hume-17.0086.21%

A true list of givers and not takers

So there it is, the most in-depth PPRC ever performed. With that, I wish everyone the best of luck this weekend. It is also with a very heavy heart that I take a leave of absence from my post controlling the internet, while I try to bash out some more meaningful literature. I hope to return soon, but for the meanwhile, I leave you in some very capable pairs of hands.

#GDBO #IJCSO #IFLTS #GOTW #IFLTN #IFLTB #ShandyMan

Important Disclaimer 1: Statistics correct as of Tuesday 11th February 2020

Important Disclaimer 2: How many likes you get is nowhere a measure of how popular/cool/whatever, but I had nothing else to write about this week.

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